THE PULSE ● WEEKLY REPORT

Rolex market: a busy Thursday lifts the index to a weekly high, then the gains fade into a quiet Sunday

Week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 · The Pulse Rolex Index · thepulse.fun
The Pulse Index
97.62
−0.4% this week
Average watch
98.63
+0.5% this week
Typical sale price
$14,708
from $14,756
Sales pace
160/day
below 185 baseline

The week in one paragraph

The Pulse Index slipped −0.4% to 97.62, but the path to get there was anything but flat. It climbed to its weekly high of 99.92 on Thursday (Oct 1), the busiest session of the week with 234 confirmed sales and $4.0M in dollar flow, then handed back the whole gain over Friday, Saturday and Sunday to finish at its weekly low. The average watch held up better, edging +0.5% higher to 98.63, and breadth leaned positive, with 9 gainers against 5 decliners. The spread between the week's best and worst performer was 16.0 points, with the discontinued Submariner Hulk leading at +4.5% and the Explorer II trailing at −11.5%.

Movers of the week

Watch7 dayRead
Submariner Hulk (116610LV)+4.5%Best performer of the week; the discontinued green icon firmed on a mid-sized sample of about 39 sales
Daytona (116500LN)+3.5%The steel grail held its premium and added to it, on about 58 sales across the week
Sea-Dweller (126600)+3.0%Edged higher, though this reference runs on a thinner sample (about 37 sales), so treat the size of the move with some caution
GMT-Master II Batman (126710BLNR)−3.6%Eased alongside its Pepsi sibling; the second-highest volume reference in the basket, so the read is solid
GMT-Master II Pepsi (126710BLRO)−6.1%The hype-sensitive GMT cooled, the second-weakest performer of the week
Explorer II (226570)−11.5%Weakest of the week, settling back into its recent range after an elevated start; single-day samples were small, so the daily path is noisy

Liquidity read

Confirmed sales averaged 160/day this week, below the 185 baseline because the quiet end of the week pulled the average down. Thursday (Oct 1) was the standout with 234 confirmed sales and $4.0M in dollar flow, followed by 203 on Friday and 187 on Saturday, before volume dropped to 91 confirmed sales and $1.5M on Sunday (Oct 4). That Sunday lull is the normal weekly shape: the previous three Sundays all printed between 92 and 102 sales. Dollar flow averaged roughly $2.7M/day for a total of about $19.2M across the seven days. Spreads between Bob's Watches buy prices and Chrono24 asking prices ranged from 28% to 35%, inside the usual band, with no bracket violations on any tracked reference on any day.

Methodology notes: Prices are market values (asking prices adjusted by the observed ask to sold gap), computed from roughly 14,700 to 14,900 tracked listings with manipulation screens, evidence weighted updating, and mix shift controls. A sale counts only after it is verified missing across consecutive daily sweeps. Explorer 36, Explorer II and Sea-Dweller cleared thinner samples than the rest of the basket on some days this week (single digits), so their moves are directionally real but carry a wider band than a high-volume reference like the Datejust or Submariner Date. Weekly changes compare the final reading of each week (Sunday to Sunday). Informational only, not investment advice. © The Pulse · thepulse.fun