The Pulse Index rose +2.7% to 100.48 — above its May 20 launch baseline for the first time since the index started. More meaningfully, the smoothed EWMA (which filters out thin-sample noise) also crossed above 100 on Saturday and finished the week at 100.72. That means the market's steady state, not just a single noisy session, is now above where it was when we started tracking. Breadth was strong: 12 of 14 watches gained on the week. The typical sale price hit a new high of $15,497. Volume was moderate — 198 confirmed sales per day versus the 185 baseline — with Thursday delivering the week’s heaviest session ($6.4M in a single day) and weekends quieting as usual.
| Watch | Week | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Sea-Dweller (126600) | +25% | Wide Sunday price mix drives the number — directionally up, magnitude inflated by thin weekend sample |
| Explorer 36 (124270) | +10% | Recovering from mid-July lows; n=6 this week, solid sample |
| Sub Date prev gen (116610LN) | +6.8% | Continues rebounding after the sharp mid-July dip |
| Daytona (116500LN) | −6.4% | Giving back the prior week’s gains; rotation away from the trophy end |
| Explorer II (226570) | −7.1% | Weakest of the week; no obvious catalyst, likely mean-reversion after prior highs |
Confirmed sales averaged 198/day, slightly above the 185 baseline after last week’s holiday-weekend lull. The week had a clear shape: Monday was the quietest day of the year (63 sales, $2.2M), then Thursday surged to 355 confirmed sales and $6.4M — the biggest dollar flow since mid-July. The spread between dealer bids and asking prices held steady at roughly 29–30%, meaning sellers are not yet cutting enough to meet bids at the old 37% gap. The bracket (bids < cleared prices < asks) stays intact.
The Pulse Index uses May 20, 2026 as its base (= 100). The index dipped below that mark in early July — briefly touching 97.6 on a thin-sample Saturday — and spent several weeks grinding back. Crossing 100.48 this week on reasonable volume, with the smoothed EWMA also above 100, is the first durable confirmation that the basket is back above its launch price level. It’s not a dramatic rally; it’s a return to the baseline after a correction. The 7-week range has been narrow: roughly 97.6 to 101.4 on the raw index, 99.6 to 101.7 on the EWMA. The market is rangebound and finding its footing.