THE PULSE WEEKLY REPORT

Rolex market: back above baseline

Week of August 17–23, 2026 · The Pulse Rolex Index · thepulse.fun
The Pulse Index
100.23
+1.62% this week
Average watch
100.61
+2.26% this week
Typical sale price
$15,204
from $14,848
Sales pace
150/day
below 185 baseline
✨ Both the headline index and the raw price read closed the week back above the May 20 launch baseline (100.23 and 100.61), reversing last week's softer close (98.63).

The week in one paragraph

A firm week: the Pulse Index gained +1.62% to 100.23 and the average watch gained +2.26% to 100.61, both closing back above the 100 launch baseline for the first time in eight days. The week opened choppy — Monday (Aug 17) and Tuesday (Aug 18) chopped around 98.8–99.4 — then firmed steadily through midweek before a strong Saturday (Aug 22, W = 100.06, P = 101.56) carried into an even firmer Sunday close. Breadth was constructive: 9 of 14 watches gained on the week. Trading pace ran 150/day, below the 185 baseline, dragged down by an unusually quiet Sunday (82 confirmed sales, the lowest Sunday reading we've recorded) that we're watching but don't yet read as a trend break.

Movers of the week

Watch7-dayRead
GMT-Master II Pepsi (126710BLRO)+13.0%Hype-sensitive GMT firming on solid volume; the week's cleanest gainer
Submariner No-Date (124060)+7.8%The purist's Sub catching a genuine, well-sampled bid
Submariner Date (126610LN)+6.0%The flagship Sub extending last week's strength
Explorer II (226570)+9.3%⚠️ Thin-sample artefact — today's window had only 2 confirmed sales (below our min-3 gate), so the price carried forward flat from Saturday. The +9.3% reflects comparing against a thinner base a week ago, not a fresh move.
Submariner Date (prev gen, 116610LN)−2.4%Giving back a sliver of recent gains; normal volatility
Submariner Starbucks (126610LV)−2.1%Cooling slightly after tracking the Hulk higher in prior weeks

Liquidity read

Confirmed sales averaged 150/day this week, below the 185 baseline. The week's shape was front-loaded: Tuesday (Aug 18) was the standout session with 203 confirmed sales and $3.58M in dollar flow, and Wednesday held up well too (184 sales, $3.03M). The back half cooled — Friday and Saturday ran closer to baseline (149–157/day), and Sunday (Aug 23) faded hard to just 82 confirmed sales and $1.44M, the quietest Sunday in the series (prior Sundays: 106–117). It's still above our hard 1/3-baseline alert floor (62/day), so we're not calling it a trend break yet, but it's the softest single-day reading we've logged and worth watching next week. Dollar flow averaged $2.59M/day across the week.

Methodology notes: Prices are market values (asking prices adjusted by the observed ask-to-sold gap), computed from ~14,000–14,700 tracked listings with manipulation screens, evidence-weighted updating, and mix-shift controls. A sale counts only after it is verified missing across two consecutive daily sweeps. Explorer II's weekly move is a thin-sample carry-forward artefact (see note above); read its magnitude with caution. Informational only, not investment advice. © The Pulse · thepulse.fun